Thursday, March 05, 2009

[tech4all] International Space Dominance: The 7 Nations

International Space Dominance: 7 Nations Launching the Next Space Race

North Korea is about to launch its first satellite. Iran launched theirs last month. India's space agency recently got the green light to send people into space, and China's announced plans to build a space station. Getting to space is no longer for a few, technically apt nations. Here's a look at seven countries that have their sights on orbit and the capabilities to get there

A Russian Proton-M rocket. (Photograph by STR/AFP/Getty Images)

With a flurry of international efforts toward satellite launch capability (from one's home country), getting back to the moon and putting citizens in space, some experts say we are looking at a new space race–one focused on total space dominance. Should we be worried? After all, the first space race had at its core a battle for who could build the biggest intercontinental ballistic missiles.

No doubt about it, says Henry Hertzfeld, research professor at George Washington University's Space Policy Institute, "there are a lot of new starts." But he cautions that it's important to put them in perspective. "There are different launch vehicles and different capabilities, too. Comparing a manned capability that India might want to spend some money on with Iran launching a very small, very low Earth orbit satellite is really apples and oranges." Here is a look at the capabilities of the top–and most-talked-about–space-faring nations in what may be a new world order. The race is on for space dominance.

China

Last month, France signed on for a sat launch on a Chinese Long March rocket. The deal circumvents U.S. restrictions on Chinese commercial launches by using a satellite made without American parts. It should boost China's economic clout by setting an important precedent in the lucrative commercial-launch market. Meanwhile, China continues to send taikonauts to orbit aboard its Shenzhou spaceship and has just announced plans to build a space station. Is a manned moon landing next?

Capability: High, along with its ambition.

Europe

The European Space Agency has seemed content to sit back and watch the rest of the space-faring world pour money into manned spaceflight and exploratory missions while focusing on lower-cost satellite launches. But plans to convert its Automated Transfer Vehicle from a space cargo container into a manned spaceship—unveiled last year—could make Europe the fourth world power to develop manned spaceflight capability, if it so desires.

Capability: Moderate, limited mainly by its own ambition, or lack thereof.

United States

While waiting on the new NASA leader, the United States continues its focus on the moon—with Martian aspirations—with its technically troubled Constellation system. After the space shuttle retires in 2010, NASA will find itself without a manned spaceflight capability until Constellation is completed–as early as 2015.

Capability: High, but subject to change with the retirement of the space shuttle.

Russia

Six private cosmonauts have paid tens of millions of dollars each for rides on Russian Soyuz ships, and the demand is now so great that the Russian space agency plans to launch the first mission dedicated to paying passengers next year. Russia seems to have found its niche, serving the emerging commercial spaceflight industry—including selling rides to NASA's astronauts. It has even approved plans to send a manned commercial mission to the moon–if only two passengers will step up with $100 million each for tickets.

Capability: High, limited by private capital

An Iranian Safir rocket sits on a launch pad. (Photograph by Vahidreza Alai/AFP/Getty Images)

Japan

Japan wants to recover its reputation in the space-launch business–tarnished with the 2003 failure of its H-2A rocket–with the new H-2B. The bigger, more powerful rocket should enable the launch of multiple satellites simultaneously, thereby making Japan more competitive in the sat launch business. It will also lift the new H-2 Transfer Vehicle, built to deliver supplies to the International Space Station.

Capability: Moderate, but growing.

India

Last month, India's Planning Commission signed off on a proposed two-person manned spaceship to be launched by 2015 on an existing satellite launcher. The plan follows last year's successful launch of the Chandrayaan 1 lunar orbiter that dropped a smaller probe to crash-land the Indian flag on the lunar surface. The agency also plans to build and launch a Mars probe in the near future.

Capability: Moderate, but growing.

Iran

On February 3, the Iranian government unveiled a space launch center and launched a satellite called Omid, or Hope, into orbit on a Safir 2 rocket. "With this launch, the Islamic Republic of Iran has officially achieved a presence in space," President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad announced to the world. Ahmadinejad denied that the launch was anything but a statement of "peace and brotherhood," but that is just a matter of semantics, says the Space Policy Institute's Henry Hertzfeld. "In space, there is nothing that I'm aware of that doesn't have dual uses, from the most modest of launch vehicles and satellites to the very big programs," Hertzfeld says. In other words, a satellite launcher and a missile are virtually indistinguishable.

Capability: Low, but slowly improving.

North Korea

North Korea says it plans to launch its Kwangmyongsong-2 satellite on a rocket dubbed Unha-2 any day now. The Koreans and Iranians have been sharing rocket technology, and their programs have progressed at similar rates. Even though Iran succeeded in reaching orbit first, Nathan Hughes, a military analyst at global intelligence firm STRATFOR, says that North Korea is actually ahead of Iran in building "what is basically an extremely large Scud," a missile built by the former Soviet Union and a direct descendant of the World War II-era V2 rocket.

Capability: Low, but improving.

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